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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: July 9th, 2023

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  • Maybe it’s as simple as the next big product. When smartphones were new, nobody foresaw just how huge they’d become. Nobody could have foreseen what a force they’d turn Apple into. But now improvements are simply iterative, the market is nearing saturation, there’s not much room left to expand what’s next?

    Maybe AR. It’s a really cool technology just now becoming practical to implement. Think of them as where smartphones were 15 years ago. Maybe they won’t go anywhere but imagine if they did! Imagine being the company most associated with the next hit tech product!

    Apple risks stagnating if they don’t find a next hit product


  • Yet. Reduced trade is a leading edge metric while most economic indicators are trailing edge. Just because it hasn’t yet filtered through to trailing edge indicators, doesn’t mean it hasn’t already happened. Everything is still in stock at normal prices but shortages are looming. And we’re riding the bus with no brakes down a steep road leading to a cliff …… just because we haven’t died yet doesn’t mean we’re not doomed

    Your argument is similar to one against climate change. Greenhouse gas levels are a leading edge indicator, or cause. Just because you didn’t see global warming doesn’t mean it hasn’t already happened. And now it is visible to all. And we’re riding the bus with no brakes down a steep road to the edge of the cliff.




  • That’s wishful thinking

    • Japanese manufacturers may have started driving toward the party but they’re way late and lost along the road
    • US legacy manufacturers will stick with gasoline trucks, and are rolling back their EV efforts
    • Rivian and Lucid are promising but still in the business of a small number of niche models. Rivian may change that in the next couple years but it’s not a given

    So, Hyundai/Kia. And we’re wondering why Chinese companies look like they’re about to take over


  • That may no longer be enough. It won’t matter if people no longer boycott them but

    • huge money loss in Cybertruck
    • investment in robotaxi won’t pan out for years, if ever
    • in US, batteries are mostly from overseas and heavily tariffed
    • all the US protectionism won’t be enough if they lose China and European markets
    • other companies are finally catching up, while they wasted their efforts
    • semi has potential, but that’s a very conservative market and environmental regulations are getting rolled back so there’s no longer that push

    There’s going to be blood at that company. A huge reset, in addition to musk leaving, is what they need