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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: June 12th, 2023

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  • That’s pretty much it. At first you get slapped on the wrist and if you just treat it as a cost of doing business without any changes you’ll soon find out that it’s not a one time fee, nor that it stays the same. I think with GPDR the maximum (one time) fee was up to 10% of companys turnover (not gross profit). With Apples ~390 billion revenue that would roughly round up to 40 billion per fine.

    And even if you have endless supply of money there’s still options to shut the whole business down if it’s deemed illegal. It might be a damn slow process, but if you just stubbornly try to fight it with lawyers and money it just doesn’t work.



  • It’s not that much about choosing a side. Europe has been sleeping on their defences for decaes and should US just pull all their hardware and troops back home tomorrow there’s no immediately available replacements on that. And that’s a sad state for the whole continent. So it’s not about honest opinion but, as everything between countries is, a political question on how badly some countries depend on US defences.

    I have no doubt that should US side with Russians it would be widely condemned in global west, but I don’t think global south or China really give a damn. But Europe almost as a whole need to get their shit together really fast and so far, even if the movement seems to be into the right direction, it’s been really slow to show up any actual results.



  • Putin is willing to make a deal with Trump in which he cedes invaded land that he doesn’t actually control?

    That might work for him, at least until Russia can build up a few new tanks and artillery units. More likely they make all kinds of outrageous claims and when Ukraine (rightfully) rejects them Russia can claim that Ukraine doesn’t want peace.

    Or the fools hope option: Cracks in Russia start to show. Money is tight, there’s no workforce, no resources to cover up any kind of losses on the battlefield and so on, so they’re starting to push on whatever peace treaty they can before the whole country collapses.


  • I still have a fools hope that generals and other high ranking military people have their feet firmly on the ground, as their whole training, career and often identity necessities. And, at least on my belief, that also means that they won’t lead their military across the ocean to get their ass handed over.

    I’m quite confident that US military could defeat their Chinese counterpart on a level field, but fighting across the ocean is a logistical nightmare and even if they could get their boots on the ground against Chinese holding anything there would be nearly impossible and it would have an astronomical price tag. USA might be able to pull that off, but in the long term it would just be another Vietnam, but with far more severe consequences locally.

    So, yes, I assume that generals would disobey. And any competent replacement would disobey too. Replacing them with someone who don’t know what they’re doing would just be a disaster for the US of A. It might still happen, but at that point they’d look like the “second strongest army in the world” which is being destroyed on a field in Ukraine and there would be no hope for anyone in the Europe (or maybe globally) who would like to do any meaningful business with the US, so they’d just dig their own grave. pretty much like what Russia is doing right now.


  • You are of course not wrong with that. But also I tend to believe that high ranking military personnel are pretty practical and rational on their decision making. Getting US military boots on the ground in China would be bigger than Vietnam war scale of operations even to the US army and it would have immense effects on both US army and the country as a whole. The operation would practically mean moving a smaller European country quite literally across the ocean even without any warfare and when the receiving coast is armed to teeth and willing to fight for their land it’s way more difficult.

    And for what? Absolutely destroying on whatever respect and trust is left globally? Because there’s no way in hell US army would conquer and keep the whole China. Maybe expand Hong Kong or Taiwan a bit and gain a relatively small area of land for material imports? It just doesn’t make any kind of sense at all.

    9/11 retaliaton at least made some sense as US was willing to punish someone for the tradegy and Iraq wars had resources they could actually hold and gain from but with China there’s just no way for US to make any profitable scenario out of open warfare. Anything they might gain from that would be diminishingly small compared to the military effort and expenses they would need to get anything out of that fight.

    And that’s what I’m pretty much counting on. No matter how patriotic the generals might be, attacking China just doesn’t make any sense and it doesn’t have any arguments for it beyond the rambling of a demented leader they have. I refuse to believe that the biggest military and logistics might in the world would do that stupid things just because one man said so.


  • will Americans stop him before he starts more wars?

    A really good question. Politically it seems like it’s not going to happen, but I still have (at least naive) hope that the actual US mlitary would not respond on commands should the cheeto order active military operations against China. That would make absolutely no sense in so many ways, no matter how you spin it around, that I’d expect the boots on the ground would just say ‘fuck off’.

    But I also tought that the orange clown wouldn’t have a chance on elections either, so we’ll see. And also, I’m across the pond from US, so my information is mostly from European media outlets and social media around here, so take that with suitable grain of salt. I just rather not see the reality where US is fighting China and Europe is left to deal with Russia. Not because we couldn’t handle that, but because that would be just bat shit crazy situation in my lifetime.