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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: July 23rd, 2023

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  • Some place not being safe is defined as greater than n rate of insert list of bad things per capita.

    For most folks 100 in 100k murdered annually is pretty unsafe whereas 5 is pretty safe.

    But even if it were 1000 in 100k the other 99k still living could argue its not that bad!

    You basically can’t go to almost any population center without what the civilized world considers unacceptable risk whereas I can stroll through the “bad” part of my city at 2AM and mostly risk seeing gross people doing drugs.

    Mexico is objectively unsafe. Some parts of states are too like st Louis









  • I’m not going to individually go over 34 polls so lets pick the first arbitrarily

    https://split-ticket.org/2024/07/10/we-polled-the-nation-heres-what-we-found/?ref=use-these-numbers.ghost.io

    First one is about Biden it shows 13% going to third parties and 6% I don’t know. That is interesting but useless in determining anything of note. It’s also pretty wrong. More people always SAY they are going to vote third party than actually do. They lie to polls or to themselves.

    Next we have Harris v Trump with 8% undecided equally useless for determining our counterfactual.

    Next we have a question wherein they are arbitrarily asked if they would support “A candidate who” not a particular person but a arbitrary person who holds a given view. We learn that based on what people SAY there are always enough undecided to swing it either way but more people say they would vote for a democrat who holds those views. Now at last we have something interesting right well…

    The problem is that something which adds blue voters in a blue state or too few to swing a red state is worth nothing in the final analysis. We know that some people say they would vote not for a actual candidate but for or against an imaginary hypothetical candidate but not if these gains would result in a single EC vote even if 100% true. The fact that again its a hypothetical person instead of the actual folks that people have strong feelings about is again also problematic.

    In the end I’m no more convinced than I started. I’m not doing this 33 more to prove that the rest is equally trash because you wasted my time by not collecting a singular example instead of a huge list of bullshit.




  • This proves more people say they would support someone who says they will do something that aligns with what people say they support. It doesn’t mean the person actually shows up. Someone put on the spot may give you the answer you want and still not show up. I don’t think categorically you can prove the kind of thing you want to prove. If polls were remotely accurate we would be talking about president Hillary Clinton

    Categorically Americans don’t give a fuck about what is happening to people in other countries. The same group most likely to say they do young people are the one that is least likely to even show up to spend 15 minutes voting. You can keep pretending that this shows what you think it shows but I will continue thinking that it shows people tell you the right answer when you put them on the spot.


  • In case anyone finds the headline confusing this is what happened in order

    1. Rodney Hinton the older hit a much beloved semi retired deputy who was directing traffic for a college graduation. He is accused of doing so intentionally but the motive isn’t specified. He was not accused of stealing a car nor did it have anything to do with any other specified crime. This is pending trial.

    2. Ryan Hinton, son of Rodney Hinton, was involved in a car theft. He and 3 others were caught in said car and scattered in 4 different directions when police made contact.

    3. During the chase police shot and killed Ryan whom they allege had a gun on him. Indeed a gun was recovered. Purported to be in possession of the young man who was shot.That said the body cam footage is alleged to show another officer yelling about a gun rather than the gun itself from the vantage point of the officer.

    Questions:

    Is Rodney guilty of killing the deputy on purpose? If so why? Was it instead an accident?

    Did the officer that shot the boy know he was the son of Rodney?

    Why did Rodney pull out a gun but not fire it?

    Is there further evidence showing the history of the particular gun? Fingerprints on the gun? Body cam footage from the other officer that more clearly establishes the gun in the hand of Rodney?