Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich reiterates call for 'hundreds of thousands' of Palestinians to be forcibly displaced from Gaza

Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich reiterates call for ‘hundreds of thousands’ of Palestinians to be forcibly displaced from Gaza

  • michaelmrose@lemmy.worldEnglish
    12·
    3 days ago

    I don’t think you can show via a survey after the fact that someone would have voted differently. I believe the entire idea is nonsense.

    • Keeponstalin@lemmy.worldEnglish
      2·
      3 days ago

      The 34 polls are throughout the campaign, it’s very clear you didn’t even bother opening the link, let alone look at the data.

      • michaelmrose@lemmy.worldEnglish
        12·
        3 days ago

        This proves more people say they would support someone who says they will do something that aligns with what people say they support. It doesn’t mean the person actually shows up. Someone put on the spot may give you the answer you want and still not show up. I don’t think categorically you can prove the kind of thing you want to prove. If polls were remotely accurate we would be talking about president Hillary Clinton

        Categorically Americans don’t give a fuck about what is happening to people in other countries. The same group most likely to say they do young people are the one that is least likely to even show up to spend 15 minutes voting. You can keep pretending that this shows what you think it shows but I will continue thinking that it shows people tell you the right answer when you put them on the spot.

        • Keeponstalin@lemmy.worldEnglish
          2·
          3 days ago

          The polls are accurate. I have no interest in your personal belief, that doesn’t change the reality of the evidence.

          • michaelmrose@lemmy.worldEnglish
            12·
            3 days ago

            When in the last 9 years or so have the polls been accurate enough to make this statement? The stated margin for error is usually big enough to go either way and the actual accuracy has been less than one would suppose from the margin of error.

            • Keeponstalin@lemmy.worldEnglish
              1·
              3 days ago

              You can find the margin of error in all the polls linked, you can even find the methodology of each polling organization on their respective sites. Not only are the margin of errors small, the reality of the significance of the polls are reinforced by the sheer amount, done by multiple organizations, all in the same ballpark. You have no basis for discrediting these polls, which is evident by your lack of engagement with the source material.

              • michaelmrose@lemmy.worldEnglish
                11·
                4 hours ago

                I’m not going to individually go over 34 polls so lets pick the first arbitrarily

                https://split-ticket.org/2024/07/10/we-polled-the-nation-heres-what-we-found/?ref=use-these-numbers.ghost.io

                First one is about Biden it shows 13% going to third parties and 6% I don’t know. That is interesting but useless in determining anything of note. It’s also pretty wrong. More people always SAY they are going to vote third party than actually do. They lie to polls or to themselves.

                Next we have Harris v Trump with 8% undecided equally useless for determining our counterfactual.

                Next we have a question wherein they are arbitrarily asked if they would support “A candidate who” not a particular person but a arbitrary person who holds a given view. We learn that based on what people SAY there are always enough undecided to swing it either way but more people say they would vote for a democrat who holds those views. Now at last we have something interesting right well…

                The problem is that something which adds blue voters in a blue state or too few to swing a red state is worth nothing in the final analysis. We know that some people say they would vote not for a actual candidate but for or against an imaginary hypothetical candidate but not if these gains would result in a single EC vote even if 100% true. The fact that again its a hypothetical person instead of the actual folks that people have strong feelings about is again also problematic.

                In the end I’m no more convinced than I started. I’m not doing this 33 more to prove that the rest is equally trash because you wasted my time by not collecting a singular example instead of a huge list of bullshit.